In Europe, inflation is running well above average. This is despite a weak economy, and policymakers are facing a trade-off: How can they achieve growth while lowering inflation?

Despite weak growth

Inflation in Europe is expected to remain high for several years. This is despite the fact that economic growth has continued to slow in the euro zone in the past few months.

One of the most important factors behind the inflation spike has been the energy crisis in the euro area. European countries have taken a number of measures to protect consumers from the rising prices of energy.

Among these measures is the ECB’s ultra-low interest rates. The bank has been purchasing hundreds of billions of euros of assets in the financial markets to keep borrowing costs low.

However, the ECB’s latest decision to slash interest rates has failed to impress the market. Morgan Stanley has revised its growth forecast for the euro zone and expects the economy to contract in 2023.

Although the euro has fallen to a 14-month low of $1.30, it should still boost imports. On the other hand, it should also make exports cheaper.

Inflation in the euro area is expected to reach 6.1% in 2023. This is down from the previous forecast from the EU Commission.

However, the yearly rate of inflation has not changed since it hit a record high of 10.7% in October of last year. This prompted some experts to predict a further increase.

Another interesting point is that low-income households are suffering more from the current inflation spike. Some countries have even introduced new measures to reduce the impact of rising energy prices on households.

Rising cost of natural gas

High natural gas prices are a cause for concern in Europe. They affect all areas of the economy. These prices include the cost of transportation, fuel, and labor. In addition, the high price also impacts the consumer.

The escalating gas prices in Europe are being caused by a number of aggravating factors. One of them is the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. It disrupted the Russian gas supply and led to unprecedented spikes in European gas prices.

Prices are expected to rise this winter. According to the Energy Information Agency, the average household is expected to see an increase in its energy bill.

The increase will add inflationary pressure to the rest of the economy. While the energy industry is expected to ramp up production, it will be difficult to bring down prices.

As the economic recovery continues, the demand for gas is growing. Natural gas is used to heat homes and to generate electricity. Besides, it is an important ingredient in fertilizer.

According to the Labor Department, the monthly natural gas index increased 3.5% in August. This is higher than the previous month’s increase of 3.1%. Moreover, the price of natural gas has risen faster this year than diesel and crude oil.

According to the Energy Information Administration, the cost of pipelines in West Texas is contributing to this increase in natural gas prices. Also, the lack of infrastructure in many parts of the country is raising the cost of natural gas.

European policymakers face trade-offs as they address weak growth and high inflation

European policymakers are faced with a tricky combination of weak growth and high inflation. They need to address the challenges in order to reduce the inflation rate and bring it down. At the same time, they need to balance their objectives in order to make their policies work.

In the current context, a tighter monetary policy is in order in most emerging European economies. However, the risks of persistently high inflation are real. A combination of supply-side shocks and demand-side frictions creates a conflict of objectives for central banks.

High energy prices are squeezing household spending. As a result, the cost of living in Europe is seven percent higher than it was a year ago.

Supply constraints in oil and gas markets are also contributing to rising prices. This will test consumers and their ability to pass these costs on.

Another challenge is to get more demand in the pipeline. To do this, the eurozone needs to accelerate the pace of fiscal consolidation in countries with less fiscal space.

Among other things, European policymakers must tackle the energy crisis and ensure that vulnerable households are able to meet their basic needs. While this might be an expensive task, it is critical to lowering the rate of inflation and boosting growth.

Nevertheless, the economic impact will depend on the duration of the recession, as well as the policies implemented. For instance, a slowdown in the major European economies will reduce import demand. Similarly, growing import bills can lead to debt distress in developing countries.